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October 14th COVID-19 Update: Five New Cases in Evanston Today, 2,481 in the state

The Food and Drug Administration Advisory Panel today unanimously decided to recommend that the FDA approve Moderna booster vaccinations for people who had previously received the Moderna vaccine. People who are eligible for booster vaccination include those over 65 and other adults who are considered at risk. The Eligible Groups are those who are eligible for the Pfizer Booster.

At the local level, the number of new COVID-19 cases from Evanstonians dropped from 84 a week ago to 57 in the week ended October 14.

Current trends

New Cases: The weekly number of new cases per 100,000 Illinois residents decreased from 157 to 126 in the week ended October 14, a 19% decrease from the previous week. The number of new cases per week in the state is now about six times higher than it was on June 10, the day before the state moved into Stage 5 of Illinois’ recovery plan.

The graph above shows that weekly new cases trends are also lower in Suburban Cook County, Chicago, and Evanston. The number of new cases per 100,000 for Evanston, Suburban Cook County, Chicago, and Illinois is listed below:

Evanston – 77

Suburb Cook County – 108

Chicago – 82

Illinois – 126

Suburban Cook County and Illinois are considered “high transmission” areas under CDC guidelines. Evanston and Chicago are considered “significant carryover” areas. See footnote 2.

Test Positive Rates: The seven day test positive rates in each region are as follows: Evanston 0.4%; Suburb of Cook County – 2.1%; Chicago – 1.8%; and Illinois – 2.6%. The test positive rates in each area are lower than, equal to, or slightly lower than they were a week ago.

Vaccinations: The number of people vaccinated in the state continues to grow, but only very slowly. As of October 14, 80.9% of Illinois residents who are 12 years of age and older had at least one dose of a vaccine, up from 80.4% on October 7; and 63.4% were fully vaccinated compared with 62.9% on October 7th. These percentages include people who reside in Illinois who have been vaccinated in Illinois or other states. The 7-day average for vaccinations is 27,559, up from 33,510 a week ago. Source CDC and IDPH.

As of October 14, 88.9% of Evanston residents 12 years and older had received at least one dose of a vaccine; 82% were fully vaccinated. Each number has increased by a fraction of a percentage point compared to the previous week. Source city of Evanston.

Evanston – COVID

Evanston today reported 5 new COVID-19 cases from Evanston residents, compared to 18 yesterday and 13 on Tuesday.

The numbers are higher than a week ago. There have been a total of 57 new Covid-19 cases among Evanston residents in the past seven days, compared to 84 in the previous seven days. 12,500 COVID-19 tests were carried out in the past week.

The 7-day test positive rate is 0.4% today, compared to 0.5% a week ago.

There were a total of 5,360 COVID-19 cases from Evanston residents during the pandemic, of which 101 are active.

No Evanstonian has died of COVID-19 since September 14. The number of deaths from COVID-19 is 121.

Cases at D65 and ETHS. According to data posted on the School District 65 website, there were 5 new cases of COVID-19 from students in District 65 in the week ended October 12 and 38 students were in quarantine. The data do not give any indication of whether the students in the schools were infected. There were no new cases for teachers and 1 teacher was in quarantine.

According to the data published on the ETHS website, there were no new COVID-19 cases from a student at ETHS and 6 were in quarantine in the week ending October 12. There were 2 new cases among employees and 2 employees were in quarantine. The data gives no indication of whether the students in the schools were infected.

Northwestern University influence. The latest data on Northwestern University’s website reports that there were 28 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 from a faculty member, employee or student at NU between October 1 and October 7. If the faculty member, staff member, or student resides in Evanston, the case or cases will be included in the city numbers. NU will update its data on October 14th.

FOOTNOTES

1 / The state moved into Phase 5 of the Illinois Recovery Plan on June 11th. Since July 1, the RoundTable has been dealing with the COVID-19 key figures once a week on Thursdays. Specifically, the RoundTable presents two charts showing: 1) the trends in the number of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in the two most recent seven-day periods for Evanston, Chicago, Suburban Cook County and the state. The graph also shows the weekly number of new cases for each region as of June 10 as a base to measure whether cases have increased since moving to Phase 5. and 2) the latest test positive rates for these areas.

As explained in footnote 3 below, the CDC recommends using these two measures to determine risk of transmission. If we see an increase in new cases or in test positive rates, we consider covering additional metrics.

We’ll also be reporting the latest percentages of people 12 and over vaccinated in Evanston and Illinois.

2 / In late July, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH), and Evanston’s Health & Human Services Dept passed a public indoor facility in areas with “significant” and “high transmission” of new COVID-19 -Cases. Areas with significant transmission are those with 50 to 99 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a period of 7 days. Areas with high transmission are those with more than 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a period of 7 days.

They also recommend universal internal masking for all teachers, staff, students and visitors to K-12 schools, regardless of vaccination status.

3 / On February 12, the CDC published a K-12 school operations strategy. As part of this strategy, the CDC recommends two measures to determine the risk of transmission, according to the report: 1) the total number of new cases per 100,000 people in the last 7 days; and 2) the percentage of COVID tests in the past seven days that were positive. The CDC provides a graph to help assess whether the risk of transmission is low, moderate, significant, or high. If the two indicators indicate different levels of risk, the CDC says the higher level of risk should be used. The following table, reprinted from the CDC report, sets out the CDC’s indicators and thresholds for the transmission of COVID-219 in the community.

The CDC guidelines are available here: Operational Strategy for K-12 Schools through Gradual Prevention | CDC

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